Here is a STEEP analysis of the drivers of change and their impact on how we will live, play and consume, and the impact on innovation, our economy and the environment.
" image: http://wordpress.thinque.com.au/wp-content/uploads/blog/FC1.png --- [ ](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com) # Decoding Tomorrow: Futurism and Foresights Today Foresights and ideas that expand minds and inspire a change of heart. # Futurist Vision of Cities Posted by [anders@thinque.com.au](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/author/andersthinquecomau) on May 28, 2012 - [Tweet](https://twitter.com/share) ## What might a futurist say about the economic drivers and talent centres of the world from a 2020 perspective? Here is a **STEEP analysis** of **the drivers of change** and their impact on how we will live, play and consume, and the impact on **innovation**, our economy and the environment. ## STEEP Analysis ### 1. Urbanisation We are now facing the largest wave of urban growth ever seen - for the first time in history, more of the world's population are living in cities than rural areas. This wave of urbanisation is without precedent, too large and too fast for even the best run cites - we want to live in modern cities, with access to cars, food and large living spaces and employment. However, urbanisation is the origin of a tsunami of problems including global warming, congestion, crime, impact on environment, health, disease and energy overconsumption. **Urbanisation can present both the problem and the solution.** ** **  ** ** ## - One hundred years ago, 2 out of every 10 people lived in an urban area. - By 1990, less than 4 out of every 10 people lived in the city. - By 2030, 6 out of every people will live in a city, and by 2050, this proportion will increase to 7 out of 10 people. On average, we're adding about 7 New Yorks to the planet every year and one million people every week till 2050. China is building 300 new cities in the next 20 years. ## 2. Ageing Population The United Nations HABITAT report shows that the number of people aged 65 and older will rise from 15% to 27% of the total population in the developed world. In the developing world it will rise from 6% to 14%. The population is expected to hit 9.1 billion by 2050, from 7 billion in 2011. The highest birth rates are found in the developing world, arguably in those cities least able to support their existing population. By contrast, in many developed countries the birth rates have fallen dramatically, and consequently there are fewer economically active people. The** [World Future Society ](http://www.wfs.org/)**reports that the workforce will shrink by 1% per year, over the next ten years. From 2030 this is forecast to increase to 1.5% per annum. 3. Environmental Concerns and Resource Shortages Global demand and consumption of energy is soaring in the developed world, representing one of the biggest challenges facing current cities. Global coal consumption rose 35 per cent between 2000 and 2006. Known reserves of non-renewable energy sources are declining. According to Energy Watch Analysis, world coal production is expected to peak in 2025 and then fall into terminal decline.  Environmental pollution in all its forms, waste and lack of water concerns increases the burden on governments to work harder to diversify their energy portfolio mix and to continue investments in **clean energy innovation**, deployment and adoption in an effort to move to a low-carbon, resource-efficient economy. There is an increased importance for sustainable development and economic growth from both the local and regional perspective. ## 4. Economic Inequality Due to the increased division of wealth between rich and poor, the world's poor are an increasingly powerful force in urban development. Current urban development models are not fit for their emergent needs.  The inability of governments to react to the urbanisation trend has resulted in the establishment of squatter settlements and overcrowded slums are home to tens of millions, like the favelas that cling to the hillsides of Rio de Janeiro and the tombs used as homes by tens of thousands in Cairo's "City of the Dead". In some developing countries, notably in Africa, this growth reflects rural crisis rather than urban-based development. Today, 33% of city dwellers live in slums. ## **By 2050, it is estimated that half of the world's population will live in slums.** In many deprived inner city areas in the developed world, the issues are broadly similar: run down infrastructure, high unemployment, an economically disadvantaged local population, high crime rates and drug use, and a dysfunctional local economy. **Cities of the Future **aren't a distant or conceptual idea, they are an immediate need to address the most pressing problems facing society in the 21st century.  There is no magic bullet - solutions for a sustainable future are based around three approaches: ## **1. Change the behaviour (demand-side) ****2. Change the technology (supply-side) ****3. Change the fuel (supply-side)** In order to provide the kind of energy that it would take for 8 billion people to live in cities that are somewhat like the cities of today's developed world, we would have to generate an absolutely astonishing amount of energy. It may not be even possible to generate that much clean energy let alone distribute it from plant to plug. If we're serious in talking about tackling climate change in an urbanising planet, we need to look somewhere else for the solution. Although technological advances and the trend toward** 'smart cities'** are playing a huge role in shaping **future cities** by improving areas as diverse as traffic congestion, energy use and crime prevention. This 'hardware of technology' must be fused together the 'software' of emotions, **connectivity**, inspiration, nostalgia, architecture and design to induce favourable behaviours on the demand-side. A shareable future of cities solution proposes a **'change of behaviour'** by inducing **favourable conditions** in cities that lead to favourable **citizen behaviours**. Every city determines to a very large extent, the amount of energy used by its inhabitants. Enormous amounts of energy use is predetermined by the **city eco-system that we live in.**  If we look for example on transport emissions and urban density, we find that these two factors tend to be inversely related. It is possible to therefore, increase the density and eco-system of cities by changes to pre-existing structures and increasing average density in the city through increasing density in selected areas. What about creating denser places focused on interaction that naturally fosters an environment where people embrace the notion of a **'walkshed life'** going from the dream home or dream car to the dream neighbourhood? Great cities and communities are founded by **great ideas**, which in turn attract the brightest minds. As opposed to the more traditional view of valuing the functional aspects,** cities of the future** will be judged on their vibrancy,** innovation**, interconnectedness, ability to inspire **creativity **and fluidness of form in order to induce favourable behaviours of its inhabitants. Successful **cities of the future** must recognise the importance of social networks in affecting productivity and quality of life by offering people the possibility of interaction, **higher levels of collaboration** and empathy, to understand each other's' needs and to help each other and their communities in general.  In environments where **social capital **is high, citizens feel safe and well looked after and view government as more effective. There are strong correlations between high levels of social capital and positive experiences of: education and employment, housing, consumption, transport and urban design, crime and community safety and physical and mental health. Increased social connectivity represents a huge opportunity as an important instrument to tackle socio-economic problems and increase quality of life especially as the number of economically active people decrease (tax payers) and welfare dependents increase. For example, in Milan Italy, volunteers deliver 25% of welfare services. ### Unprecedented urbanisation can present both the problem and the solution for a more sustainable city of the future. - What do you think about the city of tomorrow? - What do you believe are some of the best models around the world of sustainable/innovative cities? - What is needed to strategically create city ecosystems that work? Topics: [Futurist Speaker Sydney](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/futurist-speaker-sydney), [Future Thinking](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/future-thinking), [2020 Vision](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/2020-vision) ### Written by [anders@thinque.com.au](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/author/andersthinquecomau) ** ### Sign up for the Decoding Tomorrow newsletter ### CATEGORIES - [Anders Sorman-Nilsson](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/anders-sorman-nilsson) - [Futurist Speaker Sydney](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/futurist-speaker-sydney) - [Thinque](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/thinque) - [Disruptive Trends](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/disruptive-trends) - [Future Thinking](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/future-thinking) - [Thought Leaders](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/thought-leaders) - [Artificial Intelligence](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/artificial-intelligence) - [Futurist](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/futurist) - [Future Trends](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/future-trends) - [2nd Renaissance](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/2nd-renaissance) - [AI](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/ai) - [Sustainability](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/sustainability) - [2020 Vision](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/2020-vision) - [Disruption](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/disruption) - [AI Keynote Speaker](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/topic/ai-keynote-speaker) ### INDUSTRY - [Anders Sorman-Nilsson](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/futurist-vision-cities.php#) - [Futurist Speaker Sydney](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/futurist-vision-cities.php#) - [Thinque](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/futurist-vision-cities.php#) - [Disruptive Trends](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/futurist-vision-cities.php#) - [Thought Leaders](https://www.anderssorman-nilsson.com/blog/futurist-vision-cities.php#) ### RECENT FORESIGHTS [** ](https://www.facebook.com/thinquetank/) [** ](https://www.linkedin.com/in/anderssormannilsson/) [** ](https://www.youtube.com/user/andersofthinque) [** ](https://twitter.com/asormannilsson) [** ](https://www.instagram.com/andersbygeorgsorman/) ### ANDERS SÖRMAN-NILSSON #### FUTURIST. 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