Here is a STEEP analysis of the drivers of change and their impact on how we will live, play and consume, and the impact on innovation, our economy and the environment.
We are now
facing the largest wave of urban growth ever seen - for the first time in
history, more of the world's population are living in cities than rural areas.
This wave of urbanisation is without precedent, too large and too fast for even
the best run cites - we want to live in modern cities, with access to cars,
food and large living spaces and employment. However, urbanisation is the
origin of a tsunami of problems including global warming, congestion, crime,
impact on environment, health, disease and energy overconsumption.
Urbanisation can present both the problem and the solution.
On average, we're adding about 7
New Yorks to the planet every year and one million people every week till 2050.
China is building 300 new cities in the next 20 years.
The United Nations HABITAT report
shows that the number of people aged 65 and older will rise from 15% to 27% of
the total population in the developed world. In the developing world it will
rise from 6% to 14%. The population is expected to hit 9.1 billion by 2050,
from 7 billion in 2011. The highest birth rates are found in the developing
world, arguably in those cities least able to support their existing
population.
By contrast, in many developed countries the birth rates have
fallen dramatically, and consequently there are fewer economically active
people. The World Future Society reports that the workforce will shrink by 1%
per year, over the next ten years. From 2030 this is forecast to increase to
1.5% per annum.
3. Environmental Concerns and
Resource Shortages
Global demand and consumption of
energy is soaring in the developed world, representing one of the biggest
challenges facing current cities. Global coal consumption rose 35 per cent
between 2000 and 2006. Known reserves of non-renewable energy sources are
declining. According to Energy Watch Analysis, world coal production is
expected to peak in 2025 and then fall into terminal decline.
Environmental pollution in all
its forms, waste and lack of water concerns increases the burden on governments
to work harder to diversify their energy portfolio mix and to continue
investments in clean energy innovation, deployment and adoption in an effort to
move to a low-carbon, resource-efficient economy. There is an increased
importance for sustainable development and economic growth from both the local
and regional perspective.
Due to the increased division of
wealth between rich and poor, the world's poor are an increasingly powerful
force in urban development. Current urban development models are not fit for
their emergent needs.
The inability of governments to
react to the urbanisation trend has resulted in the establishment of squatter
settlements and overcrowded slums are home to tens of millions, like the
favelas that cling to the hillsides of Rio de Janeiro and the tombs used as
homes by tens of thousands in Cairo's "City of the Dead". In some
developing countries, notably in Africa, this growth reflects rural crisis
rather than urban-based development. Today, 33% of city dwellers live in slums.
In many deprived inner city areas
in the developed world, the issues are broadly similar: run down
infrastructure, high unemployment, an economically disadvantaged local
population, high crime rates and drug use, and a dysfunctional local economy.
Cities of the Future aren't a
distant or conceptual idea, they are an immediate need to address the most
pressing problems facing society in the 21st century.
There is no magic bullet - solutions for a sustainable future are based around three approaches:
In order to provide the kind of
energy that it would take for 8 billion people to live in cities that are
somewhat like the cities of today's developed world, we would have to generate
an absolutely astonishing amount of energy. It may not be even possible to
generate that much clean energy let alone distribute it from plant to plug. If
we're serious in talking about tackling climate change in an urbanising planet,
we need to look somewhere else for the solution.
Although technological advances
and the trend toward 'smart cities' are playing a huge role in shaping future
cities by improving areas as diverse as traffic congestion, energy use and
crime prevention. This 'hardware of technology' must be fused together the 'software'
of emotions, connectivity, inspiration, nostalgia, architecture and design to
induce favourable behaviours on the demand-side.
A shareable
future of cities solution proposes a 'change of behaviour' by inducing favourable
conditions in cities that lead to favourable citizen behaviours.
Every city determines to a very
large extent, the amount of energy used by its inhabitants. Enormous amounts of
energy use is predetermined by the city eco-system that we live in.
If we look for example on
transport emissions and urban density, we find that these two factors tend to
be inversely related. It is possible to therefore, increase the density and
eco-system of cities by changes to pre-existing structures and increasing
average density in the city through increasing density in selected areas. What
about creating denser places focused on interaction that naturally fosters an
environment where people embrace the notion of a 'walkshed life' going
from the dream home or dream car to the dream neighbourhood?
Great cities and communities are
founded by great ideas, which in turn attract the brightest minds. As opposed
to the more traditional view of valuing the functional aspects, cities of the
future will be judged on their vibrancy, innovation, interconnectedness,
ability to inspire creativity and fluidness of form in order to induce
favourable behaviours of its inhabitants.
Successful
cities of the future must recognise the importance of social networks in
affecting productivity and quality of life by offering people the possibility
of interaction, higher levels of collaboration and empathy, to understand each
other's' needs and to help each other and their communities in general.
In
environments where social capital is high, citizens feel safe and well looked after
and view government as more effective. There are strong correlations between
high levels of social capital and positive experiences of: education and
employment, housing, consumption, transport and urban design, crime and
community safety and physical and mental health.
Increased
social connectivity represents a huge opportunity as an important instrument to
tackle socio-economic problems and increase quality of life especially as the
number of economically active people decrease (tax payers) and welfare
dependents increase. For example, in Milan Italy, volunteers deliver 25% of
welfare services.
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