Decoding Tomorrow:
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Future Trends: 3 waves of change for small business in 2012

03 Dec 2011

I was recently asked to give a future focus perspective on 2012 for small business owners belonging to a chamber of commerce in Queensland, Australia. As I scenario planned and looked at some of the challenges confronting small business owners right now and into the foreseeable future, I recognised that no matter what industry you're in, there are three trends that are likely to affect you either positively or negatively in 2012 - and they largely depend on how you position your attitude towards them.

Personally, I grew up in a family of small scale entrepreneurs, and I am rather passionate about the opportunities that technology and socio-cultural trends are currently offering to small business owners. My mother is the third generation owner/manager of two small mensware stores in Stockholm, Sweden, which have been in the family since 1915. The centenary seems close at the moment, but like many small business owners, my mum's retail business is affected by global shifts in consumer behaviour.

Georg Sorman AB Futurism

Think about your own consumption patterns. Do you compare prices on-line? Do you read customer reviews before going to a restaurant? Do you find that the internet equips you to make more informed and evaluated decisions? Have you ever gone into a store to get measured up, just to then go online and order the same item from a wholesaler? Have you ever been up-sold by Amazon's recommendation engine? How about taken an online quote into an offline store and asked them to match your online quotation? Or perhaps scanned a barcode with your smart phone in-store to check what the comparative price is on-line, and maybe even transacted online while in an offline store?

All of these trends are affecting my mum's business. And it's fair to say they are affecting every retailer right now. The adage that 'the harder we try to force things to stay the same, the more we need to change' has incredible merit to it. We, as business owners, cannot consumption patterns and behaviours back to what they used to be. Rather, we need to adapt with the current, and future environment.

In fact history teaches us that we need to learn from the future.

So what does this mean from a futurist perspective for a small shire in Queensland, or any local council, or chamber of commerce in Australia?

1. High Tech versus High Touch

Future GPS Anders Sorman-Nilsson

Like many small businesses, my mum is heavily reliant on the 'personal touch' and focusses on the face2face interactions with customers in-store. 'Service' is used as a key differentiator, and she believes that outlets and the internet can never offer the levels of service that an in-store experience offers. While there may be some truth to this, even the most unexpected services and products are now sold on-line:

  • shoes - check out Zappos.com for example - who would have thought people would buy shoes on-line? yet this is the largest shoe retailer in the world now
  • legal advice - just go onto JustAnswer.com and get legal advice - a development of a service which is highly personalised and traditionally reliant on face2face interactions now happens online
  • accounting - in 2006 already, 6 million American tax returns were done in India, and the average annual wage for accountants in Sri Lanka is $ 5,900 AUD - this means that services are not only moving online, but potentially offshore
  • real estate - holiday letting now happens without the interaction with an agent on sites like Stayz.com.au or via direct online sales portals like HomeSales.com.au

So can clothes be bought and sold on-line? You bet. Net-a-Porter is a great example, and I recently got several additions to my Half Iron Man bike from Wiggle.com.au (free shipping from the UK...). This of course props up business models like on-line distribution for networks like FedEx, DHL and the like, and it asks some pretty big questions of small business owners:

  1. how you will you ensure that you can deliver a 'high touch' service both on and offline?
  2. how can you best differentiate yourself in an environment where eCommerce is taking over 'real' commerce?
  3. if people are no longer walking down the Esplanade to spontaneously stop and shop with you, how are they now going to find you?

In essence, even though we are interlinked, hyperconnected and online 24/7/365, a computer interface can never really replace a human face.

The questions is though: how can you better use those computer interfaces to create more face2face, high touch interactions that matter in your environment?

High tech versus high touch will continue as a trend in 2012, and smart business owners will focus on creating both types of interactions, rather than relying on just one. If you don't you're likely to have the mobility of a one-legged person. I encourage you as a future focused small business owner to be ambidextrous.

2. Turning Social Conversations into Commercial Conversations

Thinque Financial Services Client Case Study Social Into Commercial Conversations

Social Media exists, it's here to stay, and it's changing customer behaviours. The top 10 most trusted brands in mobile payments don't include a single bank. That is worrying for banks. On a small business level, the question is whether you're currently turning social conversations into commercial conversations. I don't believe people do business via a single tweet, but I do believe a good social media presence and dialogue can drive business your way. Because of social media, every business owner is now in media. And we need to start thinking like media companies.

What does this mean for small business owners at a local level?

Even if you're not a traditional media company, you need to start thinking like one. This includes creating an engaging two-way dialogue with tourists and local customers for example. Social media isn't just social in nature, it can also be commercial. Social media is the key tool for large corporates to seem local - to seem small and personal. The benefit that small businesses owners have is that they by definition already are local and personal. Social media has levelled the playing field, and my company's recent report on State of Play: Social Media in Corporate Australia 2011/12 shows why.

It doesn't matter how much you tweet, facebook, or holler via YouTube though. These are simple avenues to drive interest and create dialogue. Exchanges, or where social conversations turn commercial, is either via your website or in your store/agency/place of business. Social media can attract interest, but every business owner now needs to become a media savvy marketer - whether you like it or not.

Some potential ideas for your local business here might include (inspired by some of the things my mum could do in this space...):

  • a YouTube channel for the Chamber of Commerce where you feature various local businesses in interviews to support them reach a wider audience
  • a Facebook page for a local beauty/hair salon where your customers are asked to like and share the Facebook page with like-minded friends and for word of mouse referrals
  • a lawyer or real estate blog featuring your unique insights and local expertise, and boost your search engine rankings via Google
  • a video channel for your real estate agents and holiday rental agents showing the beautiful natural environment, and featuring local interviews

Because of social media, we are all in media. This means a levelling of the playing field, but it also means the competition has access to new tools. Get there before it's too late.

3. Think Global / Act Local

Providence Marketing Think Global Act Local

Branding is more critical today than ever before, and local providence provides massive opportunity for small business owners today. Think of why Champagne can only be called "Champagne" if it's from Champagne in France, and why legally Australian "champagne" can never be branded other than 'sparkling wines'. Or why Parmegiana Reggiano cheese can only be called Parmegiana Reggiano cheese if it's from a particular region in Italy. Locality has true opportunity in it. Your local providence could be the same. With concerted efforts, the locality could bring further future opportunities.

Think of Tasmanian salmon, Marlborough wines, or Hunter Valley olive oils for example.

While it's never been easier to buy retail products online, a local holiday experience, a swim in the ocean, or the local gourmet fish and chips can never be downloaded. Nobody remembers their first mp3 download, but vinyl/tape is foreever. Why - because it's tangible, it's an experience, it has emotional flavour. This is a unique opportunity in a global environment. As an example, Surfers Paradise figured out this local, surfy feel when they changed their name from Elston to Surfers Paradise. It was more local and marketable.

Ask yourself as a local business owner:

  • What makes your local expertise so unique?
  • How is the sense of location a unique differentiator for your business?
  • How can you best communicate that locality using mobile media?

Mobile marketing and sales is on an exponential growth curve and locality is driving it. Think of your mobile device, and the GPS that is built into it. There is now an entire marketplace that communicates with you based on your exact location. Imagine walking down The Esplanade and receiving targetted offers from local businesses while on the way to the beach like:

  • "have you remembered to slip, slop, slap? - last sunscreen for 2.5 kilometres...."

Locality has opportunity in it for local business. You can never Google local expertise, and this is certainly a thought leadership opportunity for any future focussed small business owners.

Now I just have to convince my toughest client to embrace some of this thinking too... ;)

If you're looking for a place to start upgrading your own thinking about 2012, why not download Thinque's State of Play: Social Media in Corporate Australia 2011/12 Report now?

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